📅 Key Date
Section 122 tariffs are set to expire on July 24, 2026 — exactly 150 days after they were imposed. This is the maximum duration allowed under the statute without Congressional action.
The 15% Section 122 surcharge affects nearly every import into the United States. Its expiration will be one of the most significant trade policy events of 2026. But what actually happens after July 24? Will rates go up, go down, or stay the same? Here's what importers need to prepare for.
Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 is an emergency trade tool. Unlike Section 301 or Section 232, which have no fixed time limits, Section 122 has strict constraints built into the law: a maximum rate of 15% and a maximum duration of 150 days.
The President cannot simply extend Section 122 on his own. Only Congress can authorize tariffs beyond the 150-day window, and given the current political landscape, that's far from certain.
If Congress does not act and no replacement tariffs are ready, the 15% surcharge simply disappears. For most countries (excluding China and Section 232 products), this means a dramatic reduction in tariff rates. European goods would drop from ~20% to ~5% overnight.
Probability: Low. The administration has made it clear they don't want rates to drop.
The administration launched Section 301 investigations in March 2026 targeting 16 economies for "excess manufacturing capacity." These investigations could result in targeted tariffs on specific countries and products — essentially a more surgical version of Section 122.
Probability: High. This is the most likely replacement mechanism. Expect country-specific rates rather than one flat rate.
Congress could pass legislation granting broader tariff authority or explicitly extending the 15% surcharge. Several bills have been introduced, but none have advanced significantly.
Probability: Moderate. Depends heavily on political dynamics in the months ahead.
Stock up before July 24. If you import goods subject to the 15% surcharge, consider accelerating orders to arrive before the expiration date. If the replacement is higher than 15% for your specific goods, you'll have saved money.
Monitor USTR announcements weekly. The Office of the US Trade Representative will publish any new tariff actions in the Federal Register. Subscribe to their updates.
Model multiple scenarios. Use our tariff calculator to compare your costs with and without the 15% Section 122 surcharge. This gives you a range of outcomes to plan around.
Diversify your supply chain. If your products face high total rates from one country, identify alternative suppliers in countries that might get lower rates under the new Section 301 regime. Read our guide on 7 ways to reduce your import tariffs for actionable strategies.
Model Your Post-Section 122 Costs
Compare your tariff costs with and without the 15% surcharge.
Calculate Now →Not all products will see changes. Section 232 products (steel, aluminum, autos, semiconductors) are already exempt from Section 122, so the expiration doesn't affect them.
The biggest winners if Section 122 expires without replacement would be: general consumer goods from non-China countries, European machinery and equipment, food and agriculture products, and furniture from Southeast Asia. These categories currently pay the full 15% surcharge on top of their MFN rates.
No. Section 122 has a hard 150-day limit written into the statute. Only Congress can authorize tariffs beyond this period under this specific authority.
It depends on what replaces Section 122. If nothing replaces it, your rate drops 15%. If new Section 301 tariffs are imposed on your country/product, your rate could go up or down depending on the specific rates set.
If you're confident the replacement tariffs will be higher for your products, yes. But this carries risk if rates actually decrease. Model both scenarios before making large purchases.