What Happens When Section 122 Tariffs Expire on July 24, 2026?
Founder, USTariffCalc.com · LinkedIn
📅 Key Date
On July 24, 2026 — exactly 150 days after it was imposed — Section 122 expires. The 10% global surcharge that has applied to nearly every import since February 24 hits its statutory limit. No extension is possible without an act of Congress.
The 10% Section 122 surcharge affects nearly every import into the United States. Its expiration will be one of the most significant trade policy events of 2026. But what actually happens after July 24? Will rates go up, go down, or stay the same? Here's what importers need to prepare for.
Why Section 122 Has a Hard Expiration
Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 is an emergency trade tool. Unlike Section 301 or Section 232, which have no fixed time limits, Section 122 has strict constraints built into the law: a maximum rate of 15% and a maximum duration of 150 days.
The President cannot simply extend Section 122 on his own. Only Congress can authorize tariffs beyond the 150-day window, and given the current political landscape, that's far from certain.
Three Scenarios for What Comes Next
Scenario 1: Section 122 Expires — Rates Drop 10%
If Congress does not act and no replacement tariffs are ready, the 10% surcharge simply disappears. For most countries (excluding China and Section 232 products), this means a dramatic reduction in tariff rates. European goods would drop from ~20% to ~5% overnight.
Probability: Low. The administration has made it clear they don't want rates to drop.
Scenario 2: Expanded Section 301 Replaces Section 122
The administration launched Section 301 investigations in March 2026 targeting 16 economies for "excess manufacturing capacity." These investigations could result in targeted tariffs on specific countries and products — essentially a more surgical version of Section 122.
Probability: High. This is the most likely replacement mechanism. Expect country-specific rates rather than one flat rate.
Scenario 3: Congress Acts to Extend Tariffs
Congress could pass legislation granting broader tariff authority or explicitly extending the 10% surcharge. Several bills have been introduced, but none have advanced significantly.
Probability: Moderate. Depends heavily on political dynamics in the months ahead.
What Importers Should Do Now
Stock up before July 24. If you import goods subject to the 10% surcharge, consider accelerating orders to arrive before the expiration date. If the replacement is higher than 10% for your specific goods, you'll have saved money.
Monitor USTR announcements weekly. The Office of the US Trade Representative will publish any new tariff actions in the Federal Register. Subscribe to their updates.
Model multiple scenarios. Use our tariff calculator to compare your costs with and without the 10% Section 122 surcharge. This gives you a range of outcomes to plan around.
Diversify your supply chain. If your products face high total rates from one country, identify alternative suppliers in countries that might get lower rates under the new Section 301 regime. Read our guide on 7 ways to reduce your import tariffs for actionable strategies.
Model Your Post-Section 122 Costs
Compare your tariff costs with and without the 10% surcharge.
Calculate Now →Products Most Affected by the Expiration
Not all products will see changes. Section 232 products (steel, aluminum, autos, semiconductors) are already exempt from Section 122, so the expiration doesn't affect them.
The biggest winners if Section 122 expires without replacement would be: general consumer goods from non-China countries, European machinery and equipment, food and agriculture products, and furniture from Southeast Asia. These categories currently pay the full 10% surcharge on top of their MFN rates.
Frequently Asked Questions
Can the President extend Section 122 without Congress?
No. Section 122 has a hard 150-day limit written into the statute. Only Congress can authorize tariffs beyond this period under this specific authority.
Will my tariff rate go up or down after July 24?
It depends on what replaces Section 122. If nothing replaces it, your rate drops 10%. If new Section 301 tariffs are imposed on your country/product, your rate could go up or down depending on the specific rates set.
Should I stockpile inventory before the expiration?
If you're confident the replacement tariffs will be higher for your products, yes. But this carries risk if rates actually decrease. Model both scenarios before making large purchases.
✓ Section 122 Expired
July 24, 2026
New Section 301 Forced Labor tariffs (10–12.5%) took effect the same day.
Read the full replacement analysis →Complete Timeline: Section 122 Key Dates
February 20, 2026
Supreme Court strikes down IEEPA tariffs. All "reciprocal" tariffs (10–145%) immediately invalidated.
February 24, 2026
Administration imposes 10% global surcharge under Section 122 (Proclamation 11012). Maximum statutory rate: 15%; applied rate: 10%. Maximum duration (150 days) activated.
March 2026
USTR launches Section 301 investigations targeting 16 economies — the most likely replacement mechanism for Section 122.
May–June 2026 (Expected)
Congressional hearings on trade authority. Possible legislative action to extend or replace tariff powers.
July 24, 2026 — EXPIRATION
Section 122 tariffs expire automatically. Without Congressional action or new executive tariffs, the 10% surcharge disappears.
Late 2026 – Early 2027 (Expected)
New Section 301 tariffs could take effect targeting specific countries based on the March investigations.
Can Section 122 Be Extended?
Not by the President alone. Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 has a hard 150-day limit. Unlike Section 301 or Section 232, which have no fixed duration, Section 122 was designed as a temporary emergency measure with built-in constraints.
Congress could extend it through legislation. Several bills have been introduced, but as of May 2026, none have advanced significantly through committee. Passing tariff legislation requires navigating complex political dynamics.
The administration could use other authorities — expanded Section 301 tariffs are the most likely replacement, resulting in country-specific rates rather than one flat rate.